冬の地震に備える Preparing for winter earthquakes(2)

3／27

■冬の地震の被害(Damage from winter earthquakes)
●冬の夜に札幌で地震が起こると
If an earthquake occurs in Sapporo on a winter night

市では、季節・時間帯、地震の発生場所によって状況を分け、建物や人への最大の被害を予測しています。ここでは、予測の中で能登半島地震が起こった季節・時間帯に最も近い状況である冬の18時に、月寒断層でマグニチュード7.2の地震が発生した場合に起こり得ることを説明します。
Sapporo City divides these situations according to the season, time, and location of the earthquake, and predicts the maximum damage to buildings and people based on these factors. Here, we explain what may happen if a magnitude 7.2 earthquake occurs on the Tsukisamu fault at 6 p.m. in winter, the season and time closest to that of the Noto Peninsula Earthquake.

▽死者78人、負傷者82人が火災により発生
78 people could die and 82 be injured due to fires.

暖房や火気を頻繁に使う季節と時間帯であるため、多くの火災が起こると予測されます。
This is the season and time of day when heating systems and fireplaces are used frequently, so uncontrolled fires are expected.

▽市街地の約7割で震度6強か震度7の揺れ
Approximately 70% of urban areas could experience a seismic intensity (Shindo) of 6+ or 7.

震度6強以上の地震では、立って動けないほどの揺れが起こり、固定していない家具のほとんどが移動します。
At a seismic intensity (Shindo) of 6+, you would be unable to stand, and most unfixed pieces of furniture would shift position.

▽死者が4,030人※、負傷者が5,626人発生
4,030* people could die and 5,626 be injured.

死者のうち約8割の3,213人が、建物の倒壊などにより自力で動くことができなくなり、寒さで亡くなるという予測も。
Of the deaths, 3,213 people (80%) are expected to die from cold weather while trapped in collapsed buildings.
※建物の倒壊で閉じ込められた人が全て助からない場合の数
*Estimate based on a case in which none of those trapped in collapsed buildings can be saved.

▽地震直後に875,236戸で停電、372,746世帯で上水道が断水
Immediately after the earthquake, 875,236 residences could lose power and 372,746 households could have no water supply.

積雪などで復旧に時間がかかり、停電や断水が長期間続く場合も。
Due to accumulated snow and other factors, power outages and water shortages may occur for long periods of time.

出典：第4次地震被害想定(令和3年8月策定)
Source：Fourth Earthquake Damage Estimate (established in August 2021)

詳細(Details)：危機管理課(Emergency Management Section)
【電話】011-211-3062